Türkiye is counting on leading the geopolitical Ankara-Baku-Islamabad union
Türkiye’s political and economic engagement is forming new alliances in the vast continent of Asia, where an Ankara-Baku-Islamabad axis is emerging with all its advantages and disadvantages.
Alexandr Svaranc, NEO-Journal, June 19, 2025
Geopolitical dimension of the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan alliance
Published in the Turkish Anadolu Ajansi, Associate Professor of Yeditepe University, Dr Furkan Kaya, drew attention to the development of a trilateral alliance between Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan. According to the expert, “the rapprochement between these three important regional players” is not only ethno-cultural and spiritual (religious), “but also strategic in terms of energy, the defence industry and geopolitics”.
In other words, considering modern geopolitical instability, when established alliances are beginning to crack, regional combinations are shifting to the East. New geopolitical associations (including the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan triangle) make it possible to integrate the economic and political interests of different parts of Asia.
Ankara’s attempts to exploit instability in Eurasia to gain advantages to the detriment of the interests of other players may prove problematic given Türkiye’s vulnerability
The geopolitical alliance of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan presupposes cooperation between the Turkic world and the Muslims of South Asia, where the roles of each participant are balanced:
– Being a member of NATO, Türkiye is called upon to ensure the security of Turkestan and Pakistan, and also acts as a bridge between Turkic-Islamic Eurasia and Europe;
– Azerbaijan, being a key Turkic country in the post-Soviet space, ensures the export of strategic resources of the Caspian basin (oil and gas) to the lucrative European market through Türkiye, increasing the logistical and geo-economic importance of the latter. It also acts as the junction of Türkiye’s connection with the rest of the Turkic world, as well as for the multi-vector East-West and North-South international transport corridors (ITC).
– Pakistan, having nuclear weapons, is important in ensuring the strategic security of the new union. It supplies defence products, and its 280 million-strong population, in dialogue with 170 million people of the Turkic world, form a new, dynamically developing 450 million-strong market with access to the Chinese ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ ITC.
It should be acknowledged that the trilateral diplomatic and military cooperation between Ankara, Baku and Islamabad played a key role in Azerbaijan’s military success in the Second Karabakh War in 2020, which significantly changed the balance of power in the region and presented new opportunities for inter-Turkic and Turkic-Islamic consolidation in the given geopolitical triangle.
The military and technical cooperation between the three countries continues to deepen. An example of this is the $1.5 billion 2018 agreement on the transfer of Turkish Babur-class corvettes to Pakistan and the acquisition by Azerbaijan of 40 Pakistani JF-17 Thunder fighters for $4.6 billion.
The Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations Between Türkiye and Azerbaijan, signed on June 15, 2021, was not only the logical outcome of the Second Karabakh War, but also laid the foundation for the geopolitical (including defence) alliance of the Turkic world and Pakistan. Thus, on May 25, before the Budapest Summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OT), Uzbekistan joined the Shusha Declaration, and on May 28, Islamabad did the same at the summit of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Pakistan in Lachin.
Türkiye and Azerbaijan unequivocally supported Pakistan during the latest aggravation of Pakistani-Indian relations due to the terrorist attack in the Indian city of Pahalgam on April 22. In the 2020 Karabakh conflict, Türkiye and Pakistan similarly supported and aided the Azerbaijani victory.
The geo-economic dimension
The geographical location and resources of the new union’s members are particularly attractive. As Turkish expert Furkan Kaya notes, “Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan are at the centre of Eurasian energy geopolitics”. Important international transport and energy communications pass through these countries.
Türkiye, which has access to the Black, Mediterranean, Marmara and Aegean Seas and controls the Black Sea Straits, has become an important transport corridor and energy hub on the way to Europe.
Azerbaijan, on the one hand, possesses strategic energy raw materials (oil and gas). On the other, because of the patronage of Türkiye, the UK, US and Israel, it has become a supplier of these raw materials to the European market via Türkiye, bypassing Russia. At the same time, Azerbaijan’s geography provides access to resource-rich Central Asia and supports sea and land corridors for the transit of goods from China via Pakistan and Central Asian countries and Türkiye to Europe.
Pakistan, due to its geography and partnership with China, is becoming an important link in the implementation of the Chinese ‘New Silk Road’ mega-project. This pertains to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is estimated at $62 billion.
Accordingly, the potential for the economic relations of the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan troika may be multiplied by the involvement of the remaining Central Asian OTC countries (especially the richest countries of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).
What challenges does the Türkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan triangle pose?
The strengthening of the Turkic pole, which has elements of a military bloc, may in the future may create a zone of instability in north-western Iran and south-eastern Russia, causing new contradictions and local conflicts. The strengthening of Pakistan, with its territorial disputes with India, retains the potential for further instability in South Asia.
Taking into account contradictions with India, China associates with Pakistan and the Turkic countries (the republics of Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Türkiye) the prospect of international transit of goods to Europe and back under the BRI. However, Türkiye also gains its entrance to the East (to Xinjiang). China is clearly counting on the incontestability of its advantages (economic, military and demographic), which negates the threat of the Uyghur population’s Turkic separatism (with external complicity). However, geopolitical alliances involve long-term plans and are not designed for a short period of time.
The US is accustomed to dominating everywhere, and will try to exclude new monopolies that could harm its regional and global plans. If Washington does not solve trade and economic issues in its relations with China (including tariffs on Chinese goods), then there is no guarantee of an easy solution to alternative transit routes for Chinese goods to Europe through Türkiye, Pakistan and the Turkic countries of Central Asia.
The United Kingdom is most interested in deepening ties with Türkiye, the Turkic world in general, Pakistan and China. For London, projects such as Turan (OTS), the union of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, and the Chinese Silk Road are desirable links within the framework of the British strategic ‘Great Game’. The UK is aiming for the revanchism of imperial traditions to systematically enter Central Asia and weaken the role of Russia, China and Iran.
Existing and potential contradictions regionally and globally do not mean that the geopolitical and geo-economic union of Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan is unsustainable. However, high expectations may turn out to be unfounded if serious opponents and contradictions appear in any parts of their monopoly (e.g. in the South Caucasus or the Middle East).
Progress appears where there is a balance of interests, healthy competition and mutual benefit. In all other cases, Ankara’s attempts to exploit instability in Eurasia to gain advantages to the detriment of the interests of other players may prove problematic given Türkiye’s vulnerability.
Alexander Svarants, Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Turkologist, expert on the Middle East