Geopolitics: Does Size Still Matter?

In a multipolarity world, territory, population, and economic weight still shape global power. We explore why size matters in geopolitics — and what it reveals about the rise of the Global South.

By Ricardo Martins

In a world shifting towards multipolarity, territory, population, and economic weight still shape global power. This piece explores why size still matters in geopolitics — and what it reveals about the rise of the Global South.

This Venn diagram titled “Size matters” (in Portuguese) presents a comparative geopolitical view by overlapping three key indicators (We apologise for the incorrect use of the Pakistani flag in place of the Algerian one):

The Three Spheres Explained

1. Green Circle – Countries with more than 2 million km²
   This represents the largest countries by land area. Territorial size often implies resource wealth, strategic depth, and geopolitical influence.

2. Purple Circle – Countries with more than 100 million inhabitants
   These are the most populous nations, which implies substantial domestic markets, labour force potential, and often regional influence or internal challenges.

3. Red Circle – Countries with a GDP above $1 trillion
   These are economically powerful states, capable of projecting influence globally through trade, investment, and financial weight.

Countries at the Centre of the Venn – The Big Five

The countries at the intersection of all three spheres are:

• United States

• Brazil

• India

• Russia

• China

These five countries are large in territory, population, and economy, making them geostrategic heavyweights.

Geopolitical Significance

1. BRICS Dominance:
   Four of the five central countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and China — are members of the BRICS group, a bloc often associated with the Global South and a challenge to Western hegemony. They advocate for a multipolar world order and have created parallel institutions like the New Development Bank, aka the BRICS bank.

2. United States – The Outlier
   The US, while not part of BRICS, sits at the centre too. It remains the dominant Western superpower, yet its inclusion here highlights that Western supremacy is no longer unique. Four Global South states match it across the three power metrics.

3. Global South & Global North
   The fact that the BRICS countries dominate this central space underscores the shift in global power. While traditionally, global influence was confined to the North Atlantic powers, emerging powers of the South are now shaping world order.

4. Strategic Autonomy and Alliances
   All five central powers pursue assertive and often independent foreign policies, aiming for greater influence in global governance. Their presence in this intersection grants them leverage in global affairs, from climate policy to trade and security.

5. Brazil’s Place

Brazil's weight on the international stage is comparatively less than that of the others. This is partly due to its geographic proximity to the United States within the Western Hemisphere—historically influenced by the Monroe Doctrine—and partly due to internal political division dynamics and a traditional elite bonded to the U.S.

Broader Interpretive Layers

• Size + Population ≠ Economic Power
  Countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh have massive populations but do not cross the GDP threshold yet, showing the lag between demographic weight and economic development.

• Economic Power Without Size or Population:
  Nations such as South Korea, France, and the UK demonstrate how advanced economies can thrive without vast size or massive populations, largely a feature of the Global North.

• The BRICS+ Factor:
  Many countries outside the centre, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Indonesia, are now linked to BRICS+, suggesting that the group, now with 11 full members and nine partner countries, is expanding its influence beyond its core.

Conclusion

This image is more than just a statistical Venn diagram — it encapsulates a global rebalancing of power. It illustrates that:

• The future is increasingly shaped by large, populous, and economically potent nations,

• BRICS countries are matching or even outpacing the West in structural capacities,

• And the Global South is no longer a periphery — it’s moving decisively into the geopolitical core.