Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World: Demystifying Enduring Traditions and Dynamic Constraints

Book review by Ricardo Martins

Introduction

In the intricate mosaic of international relations, China's approach to statecraft provides a compelling case study of how geographic and historical forces permanently shape both domestic and foreign policy. While many Western narratives portray China as an aggressive power, this review analyses Jean Dong's insightful book "Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World," which unveils a different perspective with a strong “Grip of Geography”. It posits China as a defensive power, guided by millennia of civilizational wisdom, with strategies derived from its unique geography and complex historical experiences. This review delves into these geographical and historical forces, explaining why China prioritises internal stability and regional security over expansionist ambitions. Furthermore, it explores the valuable lessons that foreign political strategists and those immersed in geopolitical thought can gain from China's nuanced approach.

Dr Dong offers a rich, pleasant-to-read, and subtle historical perspective on China’s statecraft, diplomacy, and national objectives. Her geographical-historically-based analysis offers geopolitical analysts, foreign policymakers and scholars great insights into the new geopolitics of our age. The author explores the history and practice of Chinese statecraft, revealing its continuities and changes over long periods of history, additionally, exploring how geographical factors, including the constant floods and droughts, have shaped China's world outlook and approaches to international relations.

This perspective helps political analysts understand that China is not inherently an offensive power, despite its incursions into the Indo-Pacific Sea, which are motivated, according to the author, by the need to secure its food and oil supply and its exports, and ultimately a response to the American policy of encirclement, as discussed by classical geopolitical thinker Nikolas Spykman (1944), author of the containment and Rimland theory, and openly proposed by Brzezinski (1997) in his book "The Grand Chessboard." Additionally, the author brings in the fact that numerous dynasties were deposed because of famine, caused by droughts and/or floods. This fact is always on the mind of contemporary Chinese leaders.

Structure of the Book

“Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World” is built through 11 chapters that can be grouped in four thematic areas:

Geopolitical Influence on Statecraft: China's geography has historically shaped its centralized power structures and governance priorities, driven by the need to manage natural disasters, secure borders, and ensure survival.

Legitimacy and Governance: Crafting legitimacy and the concept of legitimacy itself are central in Chinese governance, historically rooted in a ruler's virtuousness. Today, the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy is linked to economic performance, yet it faces challenges from domestic inequalities and global shifts.

Economic Strategy: Tension between state control and private sector growth reflects a deeper historical distrust of capitalism, compelling conditional acceptance of market dynamics under state oversight. The author develops this tension under the concept of the Birdcage Economy.

Cultural and Ideological Hybrid: Despite Marxism-Leninism's official state role, traditional Chinese philosophies, such as Confucianism and Taoism, significantly shape governance practices. This is what the author calls the fusion of tradition and Marxism.

Following, I describe in more detail these main analytical arguments the author brings into her book.

Geographical and Historical Forces Influencing China's Statecraft

China's statecraft is profoundly influenced by its geography. Occupying one of the most diverse landscapes on Earth, China is defined by natural barriers such as the Himalayan mountains to the west, deserts and steppes to the north, and extensive coastlines to the east. These geographical features have historically somehow protected China from external invasions while simultaneously isolating it, necessitating mostly a focus on internal security and cohesion.

However, historically, China's interactions with its neighbours have mostly been defensive. Invasions from nomadic tribes across the steppes, like the Mongols and Manchus, shaped a mindset of vigilance and a priority on strengthening border defences. The Great Wall stands as a monumental testament to this historical necessity. Dynasties rose and fell based on their ability to protect Chinese civilization from external threats and maintain harmony within diverse ethnic territories. Thus, the emphasis on internal stability and border security remains a central theme in contemporary Chinese policy, according to Dr Dong.

The monsoon climate contributes to the agricultural self-sufficiency, critical to sustaining the world's second-largest population, which has always been a cornerstone of China's strategic priorities.

Why is China a Defensive Power?

The author elaborates her argument around the idea that China’s domestic and foreign policies are predicated on preserving sovereignty and safeguarding territorial integrity. The historical focus on self-sufficiency, combined with the recent memory of colonial subjugation during the Opium Wars and subsequent foreign domination, shapes a defensive posture. Modern China seeks to avoid a recurrence of the "Century of Humiliation," striving instead to reclaim its historical stature through economic development and technological advancement.

China’s expansive maritime activities, often cited as evidence of aggressive intentions, are primarily defensive in nature, ponders Dr Dong. The development and modernisation of its navy started under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, began during China's reform and opening up period, a time when China significantly engaged in coastal city development and re-engaged in maritime trade. This strategy is seen as securing vital sea lanes necessary for its economic sustenance, critical for importing energy resources and exporting manufactured goods. The string of bases and infrastructure investments along the "Belt and Road" initiatives is interpreted within China as ensuring logistic security rather than establishing military dominance.

Therefore, according to the book, the reasons that China is described as a defensive rather than an offensive power follow along with the following arguments:

Focus on Securing Resources: China's actions, such as incursions into the Indo-Pacific Sea, are framed as motivated by the need to secure essential resources, specifically food and oil supplies. This focus on securing vital resources is presented as a defensive measure to ensure national stability and security.

Response to Encirclement: China's behaviour is portrayed as a reaction to the United States' imperialistic policy of maintaining a strong American presence in Eurasia to prevent any single power from dominating this critical region, as discussed by Nikolas Spykman in his book The Geography of the Peace (1944) and recommended by Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives" (1997). China interprets this approach as a policy of encirclement and suffocation, potentially leading to starvation and consequently to a possible regime change, as happened in the past. In his book, Brzezinski discusses various strategies related to maintaining American global preeminence, with a particular focus on Eurasia. While the concept of "encirclement" is not explicitly outlined as a formal strategy, Brzezinski emphasises the importance of engaging with and influencing key regional players to create a balance of power favourable to U.S. interests and the strategic positioning necessary to support American dominance.

In sum, the author suggests that China's actions are more about countering perceived threats to its sovereignty and access to critical resources rather than expanding its influence or territory through offensive means.

Finally, China's approach to Taiwan, viewed as a “rebel” province, underscores a policy centred on national unity rather than expansionism. While the issue of Taiwan often exacerbates tensions with the United States, Beijing’s stance remains deeply intertwined with the historical narrative of reunifying territories considered integral to its national identity. The author failed, however, to explore the imminently geopolitical reason that China does not wish for a static American aircraft carrier to be 160 km from its coast.

My Takes

Jean Dong’s book undoubtedly presents a favourable perspective and a justification of Chinese domestic and foreign policies. However, the narrative drawn on the authority of Geography and History shaping present Chinese domestic and foreign policy helps understand China's current statecraft and its geostrategy and foreign policy.

To achieve this aim, the author brings insights from the geographical, historical and Confucian philosophical influences that guide China’s defensive and assertive posturing, which is missing in most Western studies on China. Recognising these deep factors imprinted in China’s long history and culture allows for nuanced perspectives that view China’s strategies and actions through the lens of historical legacies and national imperatives.

From these perspectives, for a foreign political strategist, scholars of geopolitics and international relations who are trying to understand the new geopolitical dynamics, including trade wars, the book brings insights that facilitate a more comprehensive grasp of China’s presence in the world.

China has presented itself as essentially a pacific nation, willing to share development with developing nations that, at the same time, serve its strategic interests. Moving beyond simplistic media narratives, the author advocates for an approach that respects the complexities of China's evolution while promoting dialogue and partnership in an interdependent world.

I finish with a statement made by the scholar and former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani (2019) about China's rise in the international scene: “China will shake the world gently, and the West, especially the U.S., needs to learn how to share power.” Developing and making the aggiornamento of global governance structures that include China as an active participant can help manage conflicts and enhance collaboration. Encouraging Beijing to take on leadership roles within multilateral international organisations and diplomacy, while the U.S., under President Trump, withdraws from these organisations, can distribute responsibilities and foster global stability.

References:

Brzezinski, Zbigniew. 1997. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. Basic Books.

Dong, Jean. 2023. Chinese Statecraft in a Changing World: Demystifying Enduring Traditions and Dynamic Constraints. Springer.

Mahbubani, Kishore. (2019). "The West has lost the art of sharing power," says Kishore Mahbubani. Archive TV, Switzerland. Available:

Spykman, Nicholas. 1944. The Geography of the Peace. Harcourt, Brace and Company.