An Asian 21st Century?

The Singaporean academic and diplomat Kishore Mahbubani wrote a book defending this thesis. I develop the main arguments brought by the author and finalize with my conclusions. By J Ricardo Martins.

Summary

In his 2022 book, The Asian 21st Century (Springer), Kishore Mahbubani argues that the world is entering a new era marked by the end of Western dominance and the rise of Asia, particularly China and India. Mahbubani contends that the West is making several crucial mistakes, such as failing to acknowledge the end of its dominance and underestimating the growing power of Asian countries. He further argues that the West needs to rethink its strategies for dealing with Asia and learn from Asian societies.

The Main Arguments

Kishore Mahbubani's main thesis in "The Asian 21st Century" is that the world is entering a new era, marked by the end of Western dominance and the rise of Asia, particularly China and India. He argues that the West is making several crucial mistakes:

1. Failing to acknowledge the end of Western dominance: The West refuses to accept that it is no longer the sole superpower and continues to act as if it still holds global power.

2. Underestimating the rise of Asia: The West fails to recognize the growing economic and political power of Asian countries, particularly China and India, and their ability to reshape the world order.

3. Misunderstanding the nature of China: The West often misinterprets China's actions and motivations, seeing it as a threat to its interests and values, while failing to understand China's own deep historical and cultural roots.

Mahbubani argues that the West needs to:

• Embrace a more realistic understanding of the world: The West should recognize the rise of Asia and its implications for the future.

• Rethink its strategies for dealing with Asia: The West should not try to contain China, but rather engage with it in a way that recognizes its rising power and seeks to build mutually beneficial relationships.

• Learn from Asian societies: The West can learn from Asian countries, particularly China and India, how to manage their own diverse societies and engage with the world.

Mahbubani's book calls for a more nuanced and sophisticated understanding of world and the need for greater cooperation between the West and the East. He believes that the future belongs to those who can adapt to the changing global landscape and embrace the rise of Asia as a positive force in the world.

Reasons and Supporting Arguments

Following I summarize the main arguments or reasons that Kishore Mahbubani makes to support his thesis that the 21st century will be an "Asian Century":

1. The End of Western Dominance: Mahbubani contends that the era of Western dominance over world history is over. The West's failure to acknowledge this reality has led to significant strategic mistakes, such as the unwillingness to accept the rise of China and the misinterpretation of its intentions. I develop further this central argument below.

2. The Return of Asia: He emphasizes the historical reality that for the majority of human history, from year 1 to 1820, the largest economies in the world were China and India. The recent rapid growth of Asian economies, especially China's, signifies the return of Asia to its natural position on the world stage. This resurgence is not merely a temporary upswing but a fundamental shift in global power dynamics.

3. Western Miscalculations and "Strategic Errors": Mahbubani highlights how the West, especially the United States, has made a series of critical miscalculations, such as:

   • The "End of History" Fallacy: The West was seduced by the idea that the end of the Cold War marked the end of history and that a liberal democratic model would triumph globally, as advocated by Francis Fukuyama and implemented by policymakers in the foreign affairs realm. This led them to ignore the emerging challenges from Asia and overlook the importance of adapting to the new realities of a multipolar world.

   • Blindness to Asian Strength: The West underestimated the resilience of Asian societies, particularly China, and the effectiveness of their economic and political models. The West, he argues, has been too focused on containing China's rise, rather than engaging with it strategically.

4. The Rise of Asia's "Spiritual Vitality": Mahbubani emphasizes the difference in "spiritual vitality" between Asia and the West. He believes that China, in particular, has experienced a significant resurgence in its social and psychological health, leading to a greater sense of national confidence and a stronger domestic foundation. This "spiritual vitality" gives Asia a competitive edge on the world stage.

5. The Importance of Asian Leadership: As the world shifts towards a multipolar system, Mahbubani argues that Asian countries, especially China and India, will play an increasingly critical role in shaping the global order. He urges the West to learn from Asian countries, particularly the success of ASEAN, in managing regional integration, fostering economic growth, and promoting a more peaceful and cooperative world. BRICS, I add, is another example of Asia leadership, mainly China.

By highlighting these points, Mahbubani presents a compelling argument for the emergence of an Asian Century. He argues that the world is moving towards a new balance of power, where Asia will play a leading role in shaping global affairs. He urges the West to adapt to these new realities and to embrace the rise of Asia as a force for positive change in the world.

The End of Western Dominance?

This is something quite unforeseen by Westerners because the Enlightenment, philosophy, colonization, and world governing institutions are basically products of the West.

Kishore Mahbubani argues that the end of Western dominance in the 21st century stems from a combination of factors. Beyond the arguments already outlined, such as the West's 'strategic mistakes' and Asia's resurgence and confidence, I have extracted two further arguments, complementary to those, which the author develops throughout the book.

1. Western Internal Challenges:

• The "Sea of Despair" in Western Societies: Mahbubani points to the growing gap between rich and poor in Western countries, especially the US. This has led to a sense of "despair" and a lack of faith in institutions among the working class, creating fertile ground for populism and anti-establishment sentiment.

• Erosion of Western Moral Authority: The West has been criticized for its hypocrisy, such as its condemnation of human rights abuses in other countries while simultaneously engaging in its own questionable practices, like torture. This has undermined the West's moral authority and its ability to lead the world.

2. The Limits of Western Power:

• Shifting Economic and Military Power: The West's economic and military dominance is waning as Asian economies, particularly China's, grow rapidly. This makes the idea of "containing" China unrealistic, as the world is increasingly interconnected economically.

• Limited Appeal of Western Ideals: Many societies, especially in the developing world, are no longer willing to embrace Western ideals of democracy and liberalism uncritically. The author does not present the US as a Democracy but as a Plutocracy, a society that is governed to satisfy the interests of the richer. They are seeking alternative models for development and are increasingly open to the ideas and values of Asian societies.

Overall, Mahbubani's thesis suggests that Western dominance was a product of a specific historical period and that the world is moving towards a multipolar order, with Asia playing a leading role. The West must adapt to these new realities if it wants to remain influential in the 21st century.

Conclusions

Here are my takes. I believe the end of Western dominance is approaching to an end due to three main reasons:

First, the West is no longer the economic powerhouse of the world. Asia is undeniably the epicenter of economic growth and vitality. The state-driven capitalism system present in most Asian countries has proven to be a more successful model than the market-driven capitalism Western system, demonstrating the effectiveness of a more interventionist approach to development. Moreover, the financial-centered capitalism model of the US and Britain generates lower rates of economic growth, wealth distribution and social well-being than the industrial-centered capitalism system of Asia.

Second, the West has failed to uphold its own established rules and values, such as those underpinning the WTO, democracy or human rights. Instead, it has used them as weapons, particularly in the financial sphere, forcing the Rest to create alternative rules and systems, which are presently in due course. This has led to a growing suspicious of Western rules and values.

In this context, George Soros' Open Society and the US governmental organisation, the National Endowment for Democracy, are seen as synonymous with colour revolutions and regime change by many in the Global South and Asia, with the goal of establishing friendly governments, as was recently the case in Bangladesh. Curiously, these organisations remain highly regarded in the West, with many scholars receiving research support from them, often producing studies that are unable to critically examine their activities.

Third, Western hypocrisy and double standards have severely damaged its moral authority and credibility. Examples include Western support (particularly in terms of arms, ammunition, intelligence, and even scholarly support) for war crimes and genocide committed in Gaza, or the series of invasions, illegal wars, such as the ones in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, and systematic torture implemented by the US in Guantanamo, as well as in other American military bases, such as in the Czech Republic and possibly Germany.

Additionally, Germany has taken unprecedented steps for a democratic nation regarding journalism and free speech, particularly when it comes to criticism of Israel in he current Gaza conflict. This includes cancelling conferences, silencing commentators like former Greek Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis, and imprisoning protestors holding placards stating "I am not complicit in genocide." Another example involves Dr. Ashraf al-Kurd, a renowned surgeon residing in London who had worked at the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza. He was prevented from entering Germany due to his outspoken criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza. This German decision had repercussions throughout the Schengen Area, leading to him being stopped at a French airport while en route to address the French Senate about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, following an invitation from the Senate. Numerous similar cases, including from the US, could be reported to support the claim that democracy and free speech are no longer core values in some of the Western countries.

Regarding this third reason, Europe is the biggest loser. Its influence has been built not primarily on hard power (economics and military) but on soft power, namely its "good image" and moral stances and values. On the other hand, the US still retains a significant amount of hard power, remaining the world's main superpower. Europe's automatic alignment with the US and NATO, the US-led alliance, and the "blackout" of European leadership have led to the erosion of its identity, its force, and its moral authority. Consequently, it has lost influence on the world stage.

Leave your comments below and Download the book for free: The Asian 21st Century | SpringerLink